Loading verification data…
Observation locations & per-point scores
Bias & MAE by lead time
RMSE by lead time
Observation vs. model (scatter)
Spatial variogram — temperature variability vs. distance
Empirical semivariogram γ(h) = ½·mean[(Ti−Tj)²] computed from all observation pairs in each lead-time window. Observations (dashed) are the reference.
About this page
Each surface observation is paired with the nearest model grid point
(max 0.5° distance accepted).
AROME Arctic 2.5 km
(00 Z and 12 Z, hourly steps, 66 h),
IFS HRES 0.1°
(00 Z and 12 Z, hourly steps, 72 h),
AIFS 0.1°
(00 Z and 12 Z, 6-hourly steps, 72 h).
ECMWF models downloaded on 0.1° regular grid (closest to the IFS native O1280 ≈ 9 km resolution).
BIAS = mean(model−obs) — positive means model too high.
MAE = mean absolute error.
RMSE = root-mean-square error.
Statistics updated daily.
The Verification period selector reloads pre-generated period-specific statistics
(e.g. verification_ifs_30d.json); if a period-specific file is not yet available
the page falls back to all-time statistics.