Coupled modelling and observations in the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone
10-12. February, Oslo.
The coupling of weather, sea-ice, ocean, and wave forecasting systems has been a long-standing research focus to advance Arctic forecasting systems. We recently conducted the observational campaign Svalbard Marginal Ice Zone 2024, funded by the NFR-FOCUS project and WMO PCAPS, and in collaboration with the Norwegian Coast Guard. The main goal is to observe and better understand the complex interplay between atmosphere, waves, and sea-ice in the winter Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) and to assess the predictive skill and uncertainties of coupled Arctic forecasting systems. Since a large number of observation points are needed to allow for a representative comparison between in situ observations and gridded model data we deployed a network of 34 buoys north of the Svalbard Archipelago in the Marginal Ice Zone. The observed variables include air and surface temperature, sea-ice drift, and wave energy spectra. The observational data set provides a unique description of the coupled system in the Marginal Ice Zone and a total of ten model- and forecasting-centers are providing forecast data with about 20 model setups that use different coupling approaches and system complexities. The workshop is intended to facilitate the analysis and interpretation of the collected data by bringing together experts from various institutions and disciplines. A primary goal is to highlight the key challenges and research questions that emerged from the campaign and the model intercomparison. This will guide future research efforts and help in setting priorities for the next phases of the WMO PCAPS project as well as feed into ICARP and preparation of the next IPY.